← This week's slate

CFB HISTORY

The Saturday Penalty

Every call this site makes about college football rests on a claim: that weather changes the game. This is that claim, checked against — completed FBS games from —, joined to what a nearby weather station actually recorded. Nothing here is modelled — it is counted.

Scoring, as conditions worsen

Points per game, and how those games finished against the closing total. The market column is the honest half: scoring falling is not the same as the market failing to price it.

What actually changes on the field

Scoring falling is a result. These are the causes — from — games of play-by-play. A rate is left blank rather than printed where too few attempts stand behind it.

Cold, with the wind held out of it

Cold and wind arrive together, so cold alone looks worse than it is. These games are all under 15 mph, which separates the two.

By ground. The same record, venue by venue: how often each college stadium has actually been cold, windy or wet during play. Where the games get played →

Schedules, results and play-by-play via the sportsdataverse college football releases (CC BY 4.0, ESPN data); closing totals from cfbfastR-data; observed weather from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive. Rebuilt weekly — last —.