NFL · Fantasy weather
Fantasy weather
Strong wind and real rain take points off passing games. This page shows which games this week have enough of either to matter, and what it does to each position group. Updated with every forecast.
Loading this week’s forecast…
Where these numbers come from
Every outdoor NFL game from 2006 to 2025, scored half-PPR, compared with what each offense normally scores against that opponent that season.
| Conditions | Games | QB | Catchers | Kicker | RB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind 10–14 mph | 1,830 | −2% | −2% | −4% | — |
| Wind 15–19 mph | 720 | −11% | −8% | −8% | — |
| Wind 20+ mph | 238 | −11% | −9% | −10% | — |
| Light rain | 580 | −6% | −5% | −7% | — |
| Rain, 0.10″ or more | 368 | −15% | −12% | −10% | — |
A dash means no reliable change. Teams run more in wind and rain, but the extra carries don’t add rushing points.
Cold on its own doesn’t move fantasy scoring. Cold games score less mostly because they are also windy or wet. In calm, dry games at 25°F or colder, the drop is small and within normal swings (98 games).
The betting total doesn’t cover it. Even after accounting for each team’s expected points, passing and receiving still fall 8 to 15% in wind and rain. The line sets how many points; the weather changes how they’re scored.
These are group numbers, not player rankings. Most players’ weather records are too short to tell apart from normal swings. When one stands out, the game lists it.
Forecast: the WeatherQB blend, the same hours as each game’s scorebug. History: nflverse play-by-play, 2006–2025 seasons; rain from game-day gauge totals.