Highs · 100 US markets
Degree by Degree
The chance of each exact high temperature at every market’s official National Weather Service climate station — the number its Daily Climate Report prints the next morning. Tap a city for its full ladder and how we did yesterday.
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Today’s chances are each city’s last forecast before its local noon, the forecast we grade, so they don’t change this afternoon. Tomorrow’s chances update through the day.
How we checked it
When we say 15%, it happens about 15% of the time
Why the likeliest degree is rarely above 25%: even a good next-day high forecast misses by about 2° on a typical day, so the chance spreads across five or six degrees. A single degree at 60% or 70% would only be honest late in the day, once most of the day’s heat has been measured — and today’s chances here come from each city’s last forecast before its local noon, the same lead the check above is graded on.
Forecast: WeatherQB blend, at each climate station. Official highs: National Weather Service Daily Climate Reports, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. For information only; not advice to trade.