NFL · Playoff Odds
Who makes the 14-team playoff
Every remaining game played out 10,000 times with the power ratings, and the field seeded by the NFL's own rules: four division winners and three wild cards in each conference, ties broken the way the league breaks them. Only the No. 1 seed gets a bye.
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Run from Week 5 of every season since 2002, its top 12 or 14 included 67% of the eventual playoff teams; from Week 12, 82%. With every game known, its tiebreakers produce the actual field in all 24 seasons.
The percentages hold up: teams given 80–89% after Week 4 made it 89% of the time, and teams at 90% or more made it 92%.
Super Bowl odds from Week 4 gave the eventual champion 2.4 times a flat share on average, and had the champion in their top five in 14 of 24 seasons. The favorite won once: at 10 to 15%, a favorite usually doesn't.
These are odds, not picks. Early in the season most teams are still within a couple of results of the line, and one injury the ratings can't see moves them.
The likeliest field today
Each division's likeliest winner, seeded by their chance at the top spot, then the three likeliest wild cards. The shaded card is the likeliest No. 1 seed.
AFC
NFC
Climbing and falling
Change in playoff odds over the last week, with the game that moved them.
Every team's odds
Every team's chance to make it, win the division, earn the No. 1 seed (the only bye) and win the Super Bowl.
| Team | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl | Rating |
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Tiebreakers follow the league's steps (head-to-head, division and conference record, common games, strength of victory and schedule) and stop short of the points-based ones, which are settled by a coin flip here.