2026 Atlantic season · Advisory 1 · Wed 5 p.m. ET, Oct 21
Subtropical Storm Josephine
Subtropical Storm Josephine Forms. About 265 mi S of Nantucket Massachusetts; About 585 mi SW of Halifax Nova Scotia.
Will tropical-storm winds reach you?
Nantucket, MA has a 99% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or more) over the next five days. The earliest they could reasonably arrive is Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM; that is also the most likely time.
The cone shows where the center may go, not how far the wind reaches. Places well outside it can still get tropical-storm winds; the map and tables here are the hurricane center's own chances for every place.
How strong it could get
The hurricane center's forecast against the range of the computer intensity guidance. NHC peaks at 80 mph (Fri 2 a.m.); the guidance runs from 55 to 70 mph at its highest (Thu 2 p.m.). Point at or tap the chart for the numbers.
The hurricane center's forecast
Every forecast point for the next 4 days, times Eastern.
| When (ET) | Wind | Strength | Center |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Wed 5 p.m.) | 65 mph | Tropical storm | 37.4°N 69.5°W |
| Thu 2 a.m. | 70 mph | Tropical storm | 38.1°N 69.0°W |
| Thu 2 p.m. | 75 mph | Category 1 hurricane | 39.6°N 66.2°W |
| Fri 2 a.m. | 80 mph | Category 1 hurricane | 41.4°N 61.6°W |
| Fri 2 p.m. | 70 mph | Tropical storm | 43.3°N 56.9°W |
| Sat 2 a.m. | 60 mph | Tropical storm | 44.1°N 53.5°W |
| Sat 2 p.m. | 50 mph | Tropical storm | 44.4°N 50.4°W |
| Sun 2 p.m. | 45 mph | Tropical storm | 43.5°N 37.5°W |
Every place the hurricane center lists
Chance of each wind speed over the next five days, and when tropical-storm winds could arrive. Earliest: the first window with a 10% chance they have begun. Most likely: the window they are likeliest to start in.
| Place | 39+ mph | 58+ mph | 74+ mph | Earliest | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantucket, MA | 99% | 0% | 0% | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM |
| Sable Island | 92% | 36% | 6% | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM |
| Hyannis, MA | 66% | 0% | 0% | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM |
| Montauk Point | 63% | 0% | 0% | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM |
| Eddy Point NS | 59% | 0% | 0% | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM |
| Cape Race Nfld | 57% | 7% | 2% | Fri 2 AM–2 PM | Fri 2 AM–2 PM |
| Ile St. Pierre | 56% | 3% | 0% | Fri 2 AM–2 PM | Fri 2 AM–2 PM |
| Yarmouth NS | 54% | 0% | 0% | Thu 2 AM–2 PM | Thu 2 AM–2 PM |
| Providence, RI | 50% | 0% | 0% | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM |
| Sydney NS | 48% | 0% | 0% | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM |
| Halifax NS | 45% | 0% | 0% | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM |
| Burgeo Nfld | 32% | 0% | 0% | Fri 2 AM–2 PM | Fri 2 AM–2 PM |
| Hibernia Oilfd | 28% | 3% | 0% | Fri 2 PM–Sat 2 PM | Fri 2 PM–Sat 2 PM |
| Ptx Basques | 24% | 0% | 0% | Fri 2 AM–2 PM | Fri 2 AM–2 PM |
| New London, CT | 16% | 0% | 0% | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM |
| St. John Nb | 15% | 0% | 0% | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM | Thu 2 PM–Fri 2 AM |
| Eastport, ME | 14% | 0% | 0% | Thu 2 AM–2 PM | Thu 2 AM–2 PM |
| Nyc Jfk Airprt | 10% | 0% | 0% | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM |
| Boston, MA | 7% | 0% | 0% | — | — |
| Islip, NY | 5% | 0% | 0% | — | Wed 2 PM–Thu 2 AM |
Times Eastern. Wind speed probabilities and arrival times: NOAA National Hurricane Center (public domain).
This page stays up. Once the storm is gone it becomes its record: the track, its peak and the games it touched, linked from the season on Past seasons.